Biotech Relative Strength makes lower low.

Posted on Sunday October 04, 2015

Last week I posted about a plan for biotech trades along with an update 4 days later.

The thesis was that at the time, there was likely to be a bit more downside and then “I am watching the 285-295 for potential support”.

Support came in right at 285  almost to the penny, and we are rallying higher.

With oversold conditions in, right at support, this is totally to be expected, but this sector, in my mind, is still in a major warning zone.  I will remain open minded, that the bubble has not yet burst, by my expectation is for a rally up to the 330-350 levels of overhead supply,  allowing overbought conditions to kick in before the next rug pull and a move to 260 or lower.

One of the conditions that is making me more confident that the bubble is bursting, the breakdown in Relative Strength. Both against the SPX and the COMPQX Relative strength make it’s first lower low it has made during the bubble phase. That would have me on major alert as a long. Another lower high, lower low, in my mind, means a major trend change in motion.

Time and price will tell. What do you think? Please comment or reply on stocktwits, enjoy critiquing ideas.

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